However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. Try again. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. New York: Free Press, 1992. Updated at 01.00 EST Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! What the hell have we done? The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. [5] Andrew Browne. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). [6] Paul Monk. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. 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A sad state of affairs. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. Just $5 a month. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. But the nation is not in a good place. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. War is inevitable. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. Everyone is doing it hard at present. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . Gosh and golly. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. At any rate Australia is in trouble. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. Jacqui Lambie!! This is the real war. they wont need to invade, they will own us. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . But is it? Australia cut. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. 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